Rob's Real Estate Report
September 2023 Housing Stats & Analysis
By Rob Pilon: Average prices in September increased 3.4% from August 2023. That's the first month-over-month increase in the last 4 months:
-
May to June prices: fell 1.2%
-
June to July prices: fell 5.4%%
-
July to August prices: fell 3.2%
-
August to September prices: increased 3.4%
Woo-hoo, the market is back! Prices are going up again!
Ya, no. Is it really true that prices jumped 3.4% from August to Septemeber when so many indicators and on-the-ground realities point to continued softness? To answer this, we need to look more granular. Examine the table below:
Toronto average prices rose a staggering 11% from August to September. That's boom-time stuff. Given the sheer size of Toronto's sales, such an increase elevated the entire TRREB average. But Toronto's seemingly over-heated prices were a bit of a ruse. The real truth lies beneath the surface. Check this out:
There were less sales in the cheaper under $1M range in September (1,080) compared to August (1,269), more sales between $1M and $2M in September, and considerably more sales over $2M in September (185) versus August (only 112). That's why Toronto's average price skyrocketed 11.3% from August to September. It certainly wasn't because every house and condo in Toronto increased magically by 11.3% in one month in a flat market. The majority of cities and towns in all TRREB regions saw continued price erosion from August to September.
September sales were abysmal.
September 2023 had the lowest sales in the last 21 years of Septembers. Look at the table below (September sales are sorted from lowest to highest):
Monthly sales are the most fundamental metric of buyer demand. September's sales of only 4,642 was 12.3% lower than August's sales of 5,294. That's the 2nd largest sales drop from August to September in the last 21 years. Is it because August's sales were uncharacteristically high this year, comparatively speaking? Nope. August had the lowest sales of all Augusts in the last 21 years. What does that tell you about buyer activity when September's sales were 12.3% lower than the slowest August in two decades.
Another shocker was the worst sales to new listings ratio for September recorded in the last 21 years of Septembers. There was an equivalent of only 29% of all new listings in September that sold in September. In real terms, 4,642 sales occured in September against 16,258 new listings that came out in September. That left a lot of unsold properties on the market at the end of September. Consequently, the months of inventory (MOI) climbed from 2.9 months in August to 4.1 months in September.
It'll be interesting to see if the market worsens or begins to stabilize in October.
Below are September's market numbers for indivdual cities and towns in the GTA:
